Exports poised to hit new high of $290bn in 2024

Exports this year could exceed the target of 2%, reaching a new high of US$290 billion.
Poonpong Naiyanapakorn, director-general of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO), said exports this year could exceed the target of 2%, with the value expected to reach a record high of $290 billion, driven by demand for agricultural and food products, as well as electronic and electrical appliances, supported by the economic recovery of major trading partners such as the US and the European Union.
In September, the value of exports increased by 1.1% to $25.9 billion, while the value of imports increased by 9.9% to $25.5 billion, resulting in a trade surplus for a second straight month of $394 million.
For the first nine months of 2024, the value of exports increased by 3.9% to $223 billion, while the value of imports increased by 5.5% to $229 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of $5.96 billion.
Exports of agricultural and agro-industrial products increased by 3.5% year-on-year.
Exports of agricultural products increased by 0.2%, while those of agro-industrial products expanded by 7.8%.
Products that expanded well were rice, rubber, canned and processed seafood, pet food, processed chicken, and animal and vegetable fats and oils.
In contrast, exports of some products decreased, namely fresh, chilled, frozen and dried fruit; tapioca products; sugar; fresh, chilled and frozen chicken; and canned and processed vegetables.
For the first nine months of 2024, exports of agricultural and agro-industrial products grew by 5.4%.
Exports of industrial products increased by 2% year-on-year.
Exports of significant products that increased included computers, equipment and parts; rubber products; machinery and mechanical components; chemicals; and air conditioners and parts.
Meanwhile, exports of some other products declined, such as automobiles, equipment, and parts; gems and jewellery; plastic pellets; iron, steel and related products; and internal combustion engines and parts.
For the first nine months of 2024, industrial product exports grew by 3.8%.
“For the remaining months of the year, if the value of exports amounts to $22.5 billion per month on average, exports would expand by 2% this year, reaching a new high of $290 billion, compared to the earlier record high of $287 billion recorded in 2023,” said Mr Poonpong.
Regarding the export outlook for 2024, the Ministry of Commerce expects export growth to continue in the final quarter of the year despite several challenges.
These include the upcoming US presidential elections, ongoing geopolitical tensions, the appreciation of the baht, China’s slow economic recovery, disruptions in agricultural output due to flooding, and the potential impact of India’s policy shifts on rice exports, which may affect Thailand’s rice export sector.
Chaichan Charoensuk, chairman of the Thai National Shippers’ Council, said exports are expected to rise by 2% to a record high of $290 billion (10 trillion baht) this year.
The appreciation of the baht to 33.5-33.8 against the dollar is still manageable as the private sector has been adjusting to the situation for quite some time.
If the baht depreciates to a level of 33-34 baht or more than 34 baht to the greenback, it would have a positive effect on exports and this is likely to continue until the first quarter of 2025.